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Mayxit Mayxit
by Thanos Kalamidas
2019-03-13 06:42:19
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Theresa May's EU withdrawal deal has been rejected …again, by 391 to 242 votes. A smaller defeat than when they rejected her proposal in January but still a defeat. However, while the question “how is it going to work” remains, it's becoming more and more obvious that Britain is heading for a no-deal Brexit by choice. Definitely not Theresa’s choice.

In a very odd way, the last few months I keep having this feeling that whatever happened in 2015 with the near-Grexit, has somehow marked and influenced the Brexit negotiation. It is the game theory Yanis Varoufakis unsuccessfully tried to apply but failed for the simple reason that Greece had nothing to negotiate with, there were no exchange chips. While Britain …well Britain is Britain, period.

brex001_400_01Or at least that’s what Boris, Jacob and Nigel want to believe. The old empire and the power that will lay down the red carpet, from the World Trade Organization to the World Bank. They also like to believe that Trump will dye the red hats blue and print “Make Britain First Again”.

Another bet for the no-deal Brexiteers is the assumption that the Europeans – especially the French and the Germans – have more to lose in a no-deal Brexit than the British. In principal they are in the same …game Tsipras was in when he started negotiating with Brussels for a Grexit. Still, they made exactly the same mistake Tsipras did. They let time be the winning factor.

Just like Tsipras they thought that postponing every decision to the last moment while aiming to blackmail a non-deal Brexit, Brussels will feel the pressure of the markets piling. Tsipras thought the same. In true, the delays worked for Brussels. Brussels had the time to prepare banks and markets for a Grexit, but Greece was not prepared. The same thing happened now with Britain. 70% of the British businesses that work in EU are not prepared for Brexit and they are going to crash badly on the 29th of March.

The worst part - and the part government and Brexiteers are going to feel more - is the reaction of the people when they have to deal with queues in the airports and entrance fees in Europe. When over 60% of the products in the supermarkets will see a raise of even 25% and the pound after decades face inflation.

Theresa May could see all that but just like every other in Britain, she was more worrying for her political survival and personal legacy than Britain. She failed and unfortunately this is going to be her legacy. She had two full years to enter a Norwegian or Canadian style of deal to give her the two to five years she needed to stabilize the economy and society. She had two full years to negotiate with her own people and sign a deal with precedent. She didn’t.

And while May and the political system failed the Brexiteers, the Remainers strengthen their position rightfully, now demanding a second referendum and forcing May to chose between a catastrophe with a non-deal Brexit and a catastrophe with elections that will lead to another referendum.

In the meantime, IRA has been reactivated, the fire-end was under the guarantee of the EU, Scotland has started talking about independence again and the people are still waiting for the £350 millions a week to NHS.


         
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